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Technology Adoption Forecasting and Roadmapping

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This group is a place to share ideas about technology development, market adoption and road mapping methods. 

In 2010, Bonneville Power Administration, Energy Trust of Oregon and NEEA met to talk about methods of planning for emerging technology adoption.  Each organization was testing methods to forecast and plan for technology adoption.  BPA has been developing with the help of Portland State University detailed technology roadmaps for energy efficiency, power transmission and other areas of interest.  The ETO has been studying market indicators that would indicate when a technology was ready for widespread adoption.  NEEA has been developing a system dynamics model with market feedback loops and segmentation that may be useful for testing logic model hypothesis and informing market research as part of their initiative lifecycle development process.

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11 Members | Created on 7/13/2011
 

Members

Katie Elliott

E Source

2/15/2012

BIll Harris

Principal Utiility Analyst, Energy Efficiency

Snohomish PUD

2/15/2012

Aaron Ingle

Consultant

2/15/2012

Cedric Justice

Commercial Planning Analyst

Colourless Green

2/15/2012

Dave Kresta

Emerging Technology

NEEA

2/15/2012

Kurt Nielsen, LC, CLEP, IES, MBA

C&I Energy-Efficient Lighting & Lighting Systems Consultant

enLuminate Consulting, Principal

2/15/2012

Michael Poplawski

PNNL

2/15/2012

Mark Rehley

Senior Manager, Emerging Technology / Product Management

NEEA

2/15/2012

Spencer Sator

E Source

12/3/2012

David Shepherd-Gaw

Energy Efficiency Manager

Cowlitz PUD

2/15/2012

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Why Bad Things Happen to Good Technologies

Posted by Mark Rehley | 7/18/2011

John Sterman uses system dynamics modeling to discuss why some good technologies fail to be adopted and why some bad technologies are succes...

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BPA's E3T Program: 2012 LED Lighting Technology Advisory Group (TAG) Results and more...

Posted by David Shepherd-Gaw | 8/20/2012

LED Lighting: Emerging Technology Recommendations for the region.

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Explore Energy and Climate Scenarios on Free En-ROADS Webinar

Posted by BIll Harris | 4/27/2012

From the announcement:  "Join Climate Interactive for a free webinar on sustainable energy scenarios and how they are shap...

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The Bass Model Basement

Posted by Mark Rehley | 5/31/2012

This webpage provides a good introduction to the bass model for market diffusion of new technologies. One area of interest is that shape of ...

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Understanding the Growth of the Cellulosic Ethanol Industry

Posted by BIll Harris | 7/17/2012

This NREL report, done in 2008, shows another group's use of system dynamics to model market growth and potentially transformation.  St...

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Google Timeline

Posted by Mark Rehley | 7/13/2011

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Base Model of Technology Diffusion

Posted by Mark Rehley | 7/13/2011

Bill Harris with Snohomish County PUD provided this web link.  The site provides examples of technology diffusion for a number of histo...

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Systems Thinking Papers by George P. Richardson

Posted by Mark Rehley | 7/13/2011

Bill Harris with Snohomish County PUD recommend this set of articles about systems thinking and conceptual models.  http://www.alban...

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An introductory book about systems thinking by Dietrich Doerner

Posted by Mark Rehley | 7/13/2011

Bill Harris with Snohomish County PUD recommend The Logic of Failure by Dietrich Doerner as a good introduction to systems thinking.  D...

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NEEA Report: CFL System Dynamics Model Development

Posted by Mark Rehley | 6/02/2011

This is a draft report that should not be widely distributed.  Formatting and content may change before it is finalized.

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CFL System Dynamics Model Project Presentation

Posted by Mark Rehley | 7/13/2011

NEEA commissioned Aaron Ingle to develop a system dynamics market model.  To test the model's ability to represent market behavior...

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