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Strategic Energy Management Modeling: What’s good enough?

Created 10/20/2017 by Warren Fish
Updated 10/20/2017 by Warren Fish
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2017 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference, Baltimore, MD

Strategic Energy Management Modeling: What’s good enough?

Philipp Degens, Energy Trust of Oregon, Portland, Oregon

Anna Kelly, The Cadmus Group, Portland, Oregon


Both commercial and industrial Strategic Energy Management (SEM) programs include the development of one or more models of energy consumption for each participating site. Protocols for model design have been put forward with many specifics on model requirements. Significant resources are often spent on developing models due to data and specification requirements. The question of what level of model development is good enough to estimate program level savings has not been addressed.

Energy Trust of Oregon has been implementing SEM for commercial and industrial customers for many years, and many hundreds of models have been developed. This study selects a sample of gas and electric models from the industrial SEM program, and reruns them using standardized simplified specifications. The overall savings estimated by the models specified by the program and those from the simplified models were compared, to determine if the difference in savings estimated by the two methods is statistically significant. The results prove useful in guiding programs on what level of analysis should be undertaken for SEM participants at the start of an SEM engagement. As simplified models rely on a reduced set of variables and data, the results of this study also provide guidance on what types of data the program should collect to develop the initial model.


Posted By: Warren Fish 10/20/17 on 12:58 PM (Pacific Time)
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